文章摘要
基于灰色系统的北太平洋柔鱼渔汛特征分析及旺汛期预测
Analysis on fishing seasons characteristics of Ommastrephes bartrami and prediction of main fishing season based on grey system theoryXIE Mingyang1,CHEN Xinjun1,2,3,4,5*
投稿时间:2020-02-02  修订日期:2020-03-23
DOI:
中文关键词: 柔鱼  渔汛  旺汛期  灰色波形预测
英文关键词: Ommastrephes bartrami  fishing seasons  main fishing season  grey wave forcasting
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
解明阳 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院
农业部大洋渔业开发重点实验室
国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心
大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室
农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站 
772966694@qq.com 
陈新军 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院 xjchen@shou.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      柔鱼(Ommastrephesbartramii)是大洋性经济头足类,是我国远洋鱿钓渔船重要的捕捞对象之一。分析柔鱼渔汛特征并预测旺汛期有助于柔鱼资源的合理开发与利用。根据2013—2017年北太平洋柔鱼渔业生产统计数据,以每日平均渔获量(CPUEday)作为资源丰度,利用分位数的方法划分旺汛期;结合灰色波形预测方法对旺汛期日期序列建立GM(1,1)模型群,对旺汛期出现的时间进行预测。结果显示,北太平洋柔鱼渔汛时间最早为5月12日,一直持续到年终;旺汛期为每年的8—11月,第1旺汛期基本上在8月出现。研究认为,灰色波形预测GM(1,1)模型群的平均相对误差为6.83%,旺汛期日期序列预测的平均相对误差为8.19%,验证数据的平均相对误差为15.82%,此模型可用作预测北太平洋柔鱼的旺汛期。研究结果可为远洋渔业企业的高效率、合理化的科学生产提供技术支撑。
英文摘要:
      Ommastrephes bartramii is a kind of oceanic and economic cephalopod, which is one of the important fishing targets for ocean squid fishing vessels in China. Analyzing the characteristics of Ommastrephes bartrami fishing seasons and predicting the main fishing seasons are helpful for the rational development and sustainable use of resources. According to the fishing data of neon flying squid from 2013 to 2017, we use the daily catch per fishing effort (CPUEday) as the resource abundance and use the quantile method to divide the main fishing seasons. The GM (1,1) model group is established for the date series of the main fishing seasons by combining the grey wave forecasting model to predict the time of the main fishing season.The results show that the earliest fishing season of neon flying squid is12, May and lasts until the end of the year; the primary period infishing season is from August to November each year, and the first main fishing season basically occurs in August. The average relative error of the grey wave forecasting GM (1,1) model group is 6.83%, the average relative error of the date series forecast during the main fishing season is 8.19%, and the average relative error of the validation data is 15.82%. This model can be used to predict the main fishing season of neon flying squid. The research results can provide technical support for the efficient and rational scientific production of offshore fishery enterprises.
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