文章摘要
东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度灰色预测研究
Prediction of abundance index of Dosidicus gigas in the Southeast Pacific Ocean based on grey model
投稿时间:2019-05-25  修订日期:2019-06-21
DOI:
中文关键词: 东南太平洋  茎柔鱼  灰色预测  资源丰度
英文关键词: Southeast Pacific Ocean  Dosidicus gigas  Grey system  abundance index
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(NSFC31702343,NSFC41876141),海洋二号卫星地面应用系统(HY2A-HT-YWY-006
作者单位E-mail
闫永斌 上海海洋大学 15653831687@163.com 
汪金涛 上海海洋大学 jtwang@shou.edu.cn 
陈新军 上海海洋大学  
雷林 上海海洋大学  
程起群 东海水产研究所  
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中文摘要:
      茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是东南太平洋头足类中个体最大、资源最丰富的种类之一,经济价值高,已成为我国远洋渔业的重要组成部分。准确的资源丰度预测有利于资源的合理开发和利用。我们基于2003-2015年东南太平洋茎柔鱼生产统计数据以及其产卵场环境、气候因子资料,使用相关性分析和灰色系统方法,建立东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度的预报模型。结果表明,2月份的产卵场海表面温度(Sea surface temperature,SST)、3月份的产卵场叶绿素浓度a(Chlorophyll a,Chl a)、12月的太平洋年代气候震荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)和10月的厄尔尼诺指数(Oceanic Nino Index,ONI)与茎柔鱼资源丰度具有较好的相关性。比较多种预报模型发现,基于2月份SST、12月份PDO和10月份ONI的GM(1,4)模型有较好的预测效果,其准确率达到85%以上,可用于东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度的预测。
英文摘要:
      Dosidicus gigas is one of the most abundant fishery resource in the cephalopods of the Southeast Pacific Ocean. It has become an important part of China's offshore fisheries for its high economic value. Accurate resource abundance prediction is conducive to the rational development and utilization of resources. In this study, based on the 2003-2015 squid production statistics and its spawning environment and climatic factors data, the correlation analysis and grey system method were used to establish a prediction model for the abundance of squid in the southeastern Pacific. The results showed that the sea surface temperature (SST) of the spawning ground in February, the chlorophyll concentration a ( Chl a) of the spawning ground in March, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in December, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in October has a good correlation with the abundance of squid. Comparing various forecasting models, the GM(1, 4) model based on SST, PDO and ONI has a good prediction effect, and its accuracy rate is over 85%, which can be used to predict the abundance of squid resource in the Southeast Pacific.
相关附件:   万方20190525(23.58%)  作者回复  修改说明
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