不同采样设计对浙江南部近海鱼类资源量估计精度的影响
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1.温州市渔业应急处置指挥中心 温州;2.上海海洋大学海洋生物资源与管理学院 上海;3.自然资源部大连海洋中心自然资源部大连海洋预报台 辽宁 大连 上海海洋大学海洋科学与生态环境学院 上海;4.上海海洋大学

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S932.4

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国家科技支撑计划项目


The impact of different sampling designs on the estimation accuracy of fishery resources in the southern offshoreSof zhejiang province
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1.Wenzhou Fishery Emergency Response Command Center;2.College of Marine Living Resources Sciences And Management,Shanghai Ocean University;3.Dalian Marine Center,Ministry of Natural Resources Dalian Marine Forecast Station;4.College of Oceanography and Ecological Science,Shanghai Ocean University

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    摘要:

    为更加准确掌握气候变化等多重因素影响下浙江南部近海渔业资源状况,本研究基于2019年浙江南部近海季度底拖网调查数据,利用克里金空间插值法得到资源量“真值”,并通过计算机模拟重抽样方法评估了简单随机抽样(Simple Random Sampling, SRS)、系统抽样(Systematic Sampling, SyS)和分层抽样(Stratified Sampling, StS)三种抽样方法在不同采样站点数量下对总体均值的估计精度。结果显示,在小样本量情况下(站点数<35个),SyS方法抽样精度波动较大,尤以春季最为明显,而SRS和StS方法表现相对稳定。随着站点数量增加,三种方法的变异系数(Coefficient of Variation, CV)和相对估计误差(Relative Estimation Error, REE)均呈下降趋势;在大样本量情况下,StS方法的CV和REE表现最佳且稳定性最高,SyS的CV和REE优于SRS,但其相对偏差(Relative Bias, RB)波动明显、稳定性不足。考虑目前调查站点情况和估计精度,建议在浙江南部近海渔业资源调查站位设计中优先采用StS方法,并逐步构建以StS为核心的季节差异化调查方案。本研究为优化该海域资源调查方案、提高资源评估精度及科学制定管理措施提供研究参考。

    Abstract:

    In order to more accurately understand the status of fishery resources in the southern offshore waters of Zhejiang Province under the influence of multiple factors such as climate change, this study utilized the bottom trawl survey data in in 2019 to obtain the "true value" of fish stock size by the Kriging spatial interpolation method, and the estimation accuracy of three sampling methods, Simple Random Sampling (SRS), Systematic Sampling (SyS), and Stratified Sampling (StS) for the population mean under different numbers of sampling stations was evaluated through computer-simulated resampling.. The results showed that under small sample size conditions (sampling station size<35), the sampling accuracy of SyS method fluctuated greatly, especially in spring, while SRS and StS methods performed relatively stably. As the number of stations increases, the coefficient of variation (CV) and relative estimation error (REE) of the three methods significantly decrease; Under large sample size conditions, the StS method demonstrated the best performance and highest stability in terms of CV and REE.. Although the CV and REE of SyS are better than SRS, their relative bias (RB) fluctuates significantly and the stability is insufficient. Taking into account the station quality of current survey and estimation accuracy, it is recommended to prioritize the use of the StS method in the investigation of fishery resources in the southern offshore of Zhejiang, and gradually construct a seasonal differentiated investigation plan with StS as the core. This study provides theoretical reference for optimizing the resource survey plan in the study area.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-17
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-10
  • 录用日期:2025-11-17
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