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| 基于two-stage GAM的万泉河口爪哇拟虾虎鱼仔鱼对环境因子的响应 |
| Response of Pseudogobius javanicus Larvae to Environmental Factors in the Wanquan River Estuary Based on a Two-Stage GAM |
| 投稿时间：2025-04-17 修订日期：2025-05-13 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 两阶段广义加性模型 爪哇拟虾虎鱼 时空分布 万泉河口 环境因子 |
| 英文关键词: two-stage GAM Pseudogobius javanicus spatiotemporal distribution Wanquan River Estuary environmental factors |
| 基金项目:海南省科技专项项目(ZDYF2023SHFZ101, ZDYF2024SHFZ070)资助、国家自然科学基金(32360917, 42376114, 42166004)、海南大学科研启动基金项目(KYQD(ZR)21130) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 万泉河口作为典型的热带河口生态系统，为多种鱼类提供关键的繁殖和育幼栖息地，其复杂生境条件和水文水动力条件对鱼类早期资源的分布格局影响显著。爪哇拟虾虎鱼(Pseudogobius javanicus)是该区域仔鱼群落的优势种，对环境变化高度敏感，是评估栖息地质量的重要指示物种。为探明其仔鱼动态的关键驱动因子及响应关系，本研究于2021年5月至2022年4月在万泉河口的7个站点代表4个生境类型开展周年监测，采集爪哇拟虾虎鱼仔鱼样本及9项环境因子数据，并构建两阶段广义加性模型(two-stage GAM)评估仔鱼对环境因子的响应关系。结果显示，爪哇拟虾虎鱼仔鱼丰度呈现明显的季节性和空间异质性，表现为雨季（6–8月）显著高于旱季，红树林边缘和沉水植物区最高，是仔鱼育幼核心区。GAM1显示温度、氨氮、溶解氧及叶绿素a为影响出现概率的关键因子(累计偏差解释率77.6%, P<0.05)。GAM2模型中盐度、pH、温度及叶绿素a共同调控仔鱼丰度(累计偏差解释率77.3%, P<0.05)。Two stage GAM识别的最适“环境窗口”为：温度26~30 ℃、盐度10~15 ppt和20~25 ppt、pH 7.2~7.6、氨氮<0.2 mg/L、Chl-a<10 μg/L。本研究证实two-stage GAM能有效克服仔鱼资源调查中零膨胀数据的干扰，可准确揭示仔鱼与环境因子的响应关系。基于研究结果建议优先保护红树林边缘与沉水植被区，实施生态修复与扰动控制；雨季期间强化氨氮与叶绿素a阈值监管，并设立6–8月季节性禁渔区，以提升栖息地质量，促进万泉河口鱼类早期资源的持续恢复和保护。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As a typical tropical estuarine ecosystem, the Wanquan River estuary provides critical spawning and nursery habitats for various fish species. Its complex habitat conditions and hydrological dynamics significantly influence the distribution patterns of early fish resources. The Javanese goby (Pseudogobius javanicus) is the dominant species in the larval fish community of this region, highly sensitive to environmental changes, and serves as an important indicator species for assessing habitat quality. To identify the key driving factors and response relationships of its larval dynamics, this study conducted year-round monitoring from May 2021 to April 2022 at seven sites representing four habitat types within the Wanquan River estuary. Larval samples of P. javanicus and nine environmental variables were collected, and a two-stage generalized additive model (two-stage GAM) was constructed to evaluate larval responses to environmental factors. Results showed that the abundance of P. javanicus larvae exhibited marked seasonal and spatial heterogeneity, with significantly higher abundance during the rainy season (June to August) compared to the dry season. Mangrove edges and submerged vegetation areas had the highest larval abundance and were identified as core nursery habitats. The first-stage GAM (GAM1) revealed that temperature, ammonia nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll-a were key factors influencing occurrence probability (cumulative deviance explained 77.6%, P < 0.05). The second-stage GAM (GAM2) indicated that salinity, pH, temperature, and chlorophyll-a jointly regulated larval abundance (cumulative deviance explained 77.3%, P < 0.05). The two-stage GAM identified optimal "environmental windows" as temperature 26–30 ℃, salinity 10–15 ppt and 20–25 ppt, pH 7.2–7.6, ammonia nitrogen below 0.2 mg/L, and chlorophyll-a below 10 μg/L. This study confirms that the two-stage GAM effectively overcomes the interference of zero-inflated data commonly encountered in larval fish surveys and can accurately reveal the response relationships between larvae and environmental factors. Based on these findings, it is recommended to prioritize the protection of mangrove edges and submerged vegetation areas while implementing ecological restoration and disturbance control measures. Additionally, enhanced regulation of ammonia nitrogen and chlorophyll-a thresholds during the rainy season is advised, along with the establishment of seasonal fishing bans from June to August. These measures aim to improve habitat quality and promote the sustainable recovery and conservation of early fish resources in the Wanquan River estuary. |
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