| 孙 昕,刘福利,梁洲瑞,汪文俊,孙修涛.基于MaxEnt模型预测极北海带在我国黄渤海的适生情况.渔业科学进展,2019,40(5):71-77 |
| 基于MaxEnt模型预测极北海带在我国黄渤海的适生情况 |
| Potential Geographic Distribution of Laminaria hyperborea in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas of China Based on MaxEnt Model |
| 投稿时间：2018-05-24 修订日期：2018-08-07 |
| DOI：10.19663/j.issn2095-9869.20180524001 |
| 中文关键词: 极北海带 MaxEnt 人工藻场 适生范围 生态位 |
| 英文关键词: Laminaria hyperborea MaxEnt Artificial algae field Suitable scope Ecological Niche |
| 基金项目:中国水产科学研究院基本科研业务费(2016HY-JC0301)、青岛市民生科技计划项目(17-3-3-65-nsh)和现代农业产业技术体系专项(CARS-50)共同资助 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 我国黄渤海区域的自然藻场存在不同程度的退化，建立人工藻场是制止海底荒漠化、恢复海底植被和建设海洋牧场的重要手段。本研究模拟极北海带(Laminaria hyperborea)在我国黄渤海区域的适生情况，使用MaxEnt生态位预测方法，针对影响极北海带分部的21项关键水质及水文条件以及在原产地的分布情况，建立我国黄渤海海域生态位分布模型，划分相应的适生区域，并通过刀切法筛选对模型贡献度较大的环境因子，逐一分析其对极北海带适生性的影响。结果显示，在筛选出的9项对模型贡献度较大的环境因子中，温度与光照强度对极北海带分布的影响最大。极北海带在温度7℃~18℃范围、光强不超过52 E/(m2∙d)的区间有较大的适生概率；氮、磷浓度对预测结果也有一定影响，但天然海水中的氮、磷浓度不足以成为极北海带分布的限制因子。总体来看，黄渤海区域有1.67%海域为中适生区，主要集中在辽东半岛东岸长海县附近海域；山东半岛东部、北部，渤海西北部有一定的低适生范围，占总海域面积的5.12%；非适生区和边缘适生区占海域总面积的88.51%和4.70%。本研究表明，辽东半岛东岸长海县附近海域是建立极北海带藻场的理想区域。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Ecological niche model MaxEnt was applied to estimate the suitability probability of Laminaria hyperborea in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas of China. In this study, the native occurrence data of L. hyperborea and 21 key environmental variables were selected to build the ecological niche model and then redefined into occurrence zones by suitability probabilities. The contribution of each environmental variable to the model was estimated using JackKnifing techniques. The results showed that the contributions from temperature and light intensity to the spreading of L. hyperborea dominated all considered environmental parameters. In the forecasted areas, suitable probabilities were significant when the temperatures range from 718℃ and the light intensities were below 52 E/(m2∙d). Although the concentrations of N and P contributed to the prediction model, they would barely reach the limitation value for L. hyperborea in natural sea water. Additionally, our results showed that 1.67% of the entire forecasted area had a medium distribution probability, which was mainly limited within Changhai Town of Dalian City. Of the total area, 5.12% was low occurrence probability zones, mainly spreading along the east to the Liaodong Peninsula, north to the Shandong Peninsula, and northwest of the Bohai Sea. Furthermore, unbefitting and marginal suitable distribution areas represent 88.51% and 4.70% of Chinese coast, respectively. The results indicate that Changhai Town could be an ideal location for the construction of L. hyperborea beds. |
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